Thursday, 20 August 2015

Towel chucking - Commodity style.







Yesterday was a towel chucking day in commodity land. 



Oil did it again and I hold up my hand with regards to getting oil wrong as that held up hand is devoid of fingers. The kevlar gloves, donned last week when buying for a bounce, provided no protection from the falling knife of prices. 



Glencore shares melted yesterday too along with most other miners. 'Caught out by fall in Chinese demand" said the head of Glencore




He also goes on to blame the price collapse on hedge funds pushing prices to unreasonable levels. HOHOHO Kerbonk (Laughing my head off).  Glencore is more hedge fund than most other hedge funds. But as always profit is genius and losses are someone else fault. In the same way as you never hear a corporation explaining away surprise profits through lucky moves in FX, though the reverse argument is often used.

So how many corporations are going to be looking at their balance sheets for Kazakh Tenge exposure this morning and hoping to find a small nugget of exposure on to which to kitchen sink all their management filings, as the Kazakh Tenge devaled 20% overnight? This has caused many shops to close for the day as they convert the devaluation into pure inflation by repricing everything accordingly. Do you really want inflation? Ask a Kazakh how it feels.


Kaz Minerals shares quoted on FTSE up sizeably (even priced in GBP) on the belief that this deal will give commodity producers a shot in the arm.






Not so sure how long that will last as a devaluation is identical to giving your workers a 20% wage cut, and like a wage cut they either take it, or demand more pay. But you have to take your hat of to them that was one hell of a devaluation at making China's 'deval' look like a rounding error. With the vietnamese Dong 1% softer too after manipulation by its CB, perhaps the headlines should read 'Emerging Asia revalues the CNY"

But the market is now in FX peg hunting mode and it appears that the only qualification needed to be a potential peg break goldmine is the word 'peg'. Some of the pegs appear to be being attacked by angry lynch mobs rather than reasoned investors. Take the Saudi real for example. It encapsulates the fears of whats happening next door in Yemen, Iraq and Syria, it captures the falling oil price and it encapsulates 'Emerging market' ( as much because most people have never heard of its currency rather than it actually being an emerging country). Ambrose Evans Pritchard* catapulting it to the fore a week or so ago also helped. But Saudi hardly have any debt and have about $670bio of reserves which would see them through 4 yrs of 20% budget deficits even if they never borrowed.

But why worry about the detail when you can just scream 'this is 1997' and ignore the background reserve structures. Even the Hong Kong Peg was being raised as a suitable peg break candidate today.   Just do the reverse. If the Central banks had any sense they would be writing all the USD call options being bought against their currencies. Oh but they can't. No, but their Sovereign Wealth Funds may be able to. Even if they can't trade their own currency, they could come to an agreement and sell each others currency usd calls?

The Fed - Fed fed fed fed fed up with the amount of time wasted by humanity trying to guess what the Fed will do when actually the Fed are spending their time watching what you are doing to work out what they will do. I am still sticking with my March 2016 call which took 30 seconds to come up with two years ago and is still as valid then as it was now. Call it my $5 plastic cheapo Fed watch to everyone else's Patek Philippe Grande Taille Fed Chronograph. It still tells the same time and yet I have enough change to buy a boat and a car.

With the air thick with towels and me bleeding to death, I am wondering if I should also chuck my towel or just use it to staunch my blood loss. I am a stubborn fellow who really should know better but this is still august and I have to keep reminding myself that it is silly season.  The market does suffer ADHD and though China, Emerging Markets,  commodities and High Yield may look like the four horsemen of the apocalypse right now, only a month ago those Horsemen where Greece and Europe and they have effectively been turned into donkey rides. If attention can switch that rapidly before then it can happen again.




As I finish this post the markets have gone strangely quiet. Is that it? Are we done? Can we now get back to buying again? I hope so. 


And one last thing . To the market acronyms of RORO and MOMO I would like to add one for the UK weather.  SOSO - Summer On Sumer Off. This year has seen high frequency oscillations between Summer weather and November weather. Today is another November day. 

---------------
*Has someone hacked Ambrose Evan Pritchard ? He wrote this about Chona and rather than calling for the end of the world he suggests quite the opposite in that China will be just fine. Odd. Also odd that John Ficenec has taken over the uber-apocalyptic role. Perhaps AEP has seen the light, is repenting his sins and becoming a missionary. 




10 comments:

Margret Buchan said...


Do not use all of these Private Money Lender here.They are located in Nigeria, Ghana ,Turkey, France and Israel.My name is Margret Buchan, I am from United State. Have you been looking for a loan?Do you need an urgent personal or business loan?contact Morris And Company Trust Fund Limited he help me with a loan of $800.000 some days ago after been scammed of $12000 from a woman claiming to be a loan lender but i thank God today that i got my loan worth $800.000.Feel free to contact the company for a genuine financial service.Email: morristrustfundlimited@hotmail.com USA Florida +18503666201

Manoj YiDi said...

Are you in search of a legitimate loan? Tired of Seeking Loans and Mortgages?Have you been turned down by your banks ? Do you need a loan to clear your debts/bills? Then your financial trauma is over. We Offer Loans from $5,000.00 to $100,000,000.00 with 3% interest rate. We are certified and trust worthy. we can help you with financial assistance. If interested do get back to us via Email: manojyidi01@gmail.com

Gold Mendal said...

A MUST READ: I am Cortz Mendal, I live in Montana, I like to bring this to the knowledge of the general public about how my life got transformed from the most diverstating part of my life when my shop caught fire and I lost everything. I could no longer pay bills, then i set out to source for funds by all means just to keep I and my kids going. It was during this process i got scammed out of $2,560 and i said to myself that i will never source for funds on the internet anymore. Until I read about juanfinancelimited@yahoo.com on how they helped a woman who had nothing with a loan to get back on he feet. At first I never believed her testimony due to my past experience with lenders online But due to what i was going through, I had no choice but to give them a trial and I am happy i did. I was granted a loan of $70,000.00, by this Company to startup my burnt down business over again. My advice to anyone who requires any financial assistance from a genuine lender and can be trusted and capable of paying back in due time of the funds should email them or call +13072984167 and you will never regret it.

Anita Frank said...

HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM THIS GREAT COMPANY

Hello my dear people , I am Anita Frank, currently living in New jersey city, USA. I am a widow at the moment with three kids and i was stuck in a financial situation in April 2015 and i needed to refinance and pay my bills. I tried seeking loans from various loan firms both private and corporate but never with success, and most banks declined my credit ,do not full prey to those hoodlums at there that call them self money lender they are all scam , all they want is your money and you well not hear from them again they have done it to me twice before I met Mr. Wilson Edwards the most interesting part of it is that my loan was transfer to me within 74hours so I will advice you to contact Mr. Edwards if you are interested in getting loan and you are sure you can pay him back on time you can contact him via email……… (wilsonedwardsloancompany@gmail.com) No credit check, no co signer with just 2% interest rate and better repayment plans and schedule if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan without collateral then contact Mr. Wilson Edwards today for your loan
They offer all kind of categories of loan they
Short term loan (5_10years)
Long term loan (20_40)
Media term loan(10_20)
They offer loan like
Home loan............., Business loan........ Debt loan .......
Student loan..........,Business start up loan
Business loan....... , Company loan.............. etc
Email..........(wilsonedwardsloancompany@gmail.com )
When it comes to financial crisis and loan then Wilson Edwards loan financial is the place to go please just tell him I Mrs. Anita Frank direct you Good Luck.......................


Avit Investment said...

Greetings to you by ADIA.

We are a France-Paris based investment company known as Avit
Development Investment Authority working on expanding its portfolio
globally and financing projects.

We would be happy to fund and invest with you in any profitable
project if you have any viable project we can finance by making mutual
investment with you. If you are interested, kindly contact us
on:avitinvestmentauthority2@gmail.com for more details.

Looking forward hearing from you soonest.

Yours truly,
Mrs Kristina Anderson
(Personal Assistant)
Avit Development Investment Authority(ADIA)
501 Avenue Montaigne,75008 Paris-France
Paris-France.Avit Development Investment Authority (ADIA)

David Mark said...

To Whom it may concern!!!

Are you a businessman / woman? Are you in any financial mess or you need
funds to start your own business? or to pay off your bills or start a good
business? Contact us on davidmike756@gmail.com. You can also Text or Call
Our Head Office In United state of america on +19513561932.
required to fill the info :
Name—-
Amunt—-
Duration—-
Phone number—
Country—
Regards,
FROM: DAVID MIKE Loan Company
+19513561932.
davidmike756@gmail.com

Quick Business Loan said...

hey,,Here comes an Affordable loan that will change your life for ever, we are certified loan lender, we offer loan to individual and public sector that are in need of financial Assistance in a low interest rate of 3%. Bad credit acceptable,The Terms and Conditions are very simple and considerate.You will never regret anything in this loan transaction because i will make you smile. Our company has recorded a lot of breakthroughs in the provision of first class financial services to our clients, especially in the area of Loan syndication and capital provision for individuals and companies. Contact us via email: musaddiqloanlending@gmail.com

Suzan Adams said...

I've just used this guy's services and he's a legit black hat hacker, he can handle social network hacks, emails and school grade hacks, he's actually the real deal, I was initially skeptical as I already got scammed before but he did come through, his email is lawsonmichael33@yahoo.com and you can also text him on +1 646-652-6107

Dr Purva Pius said...

Hello Everybody,
My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of S$250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of S$250,000.00 SG. Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact Dr Purva Pius,via email:(urgentloan22@gmail.com) Thank you.

BORROWERS APPLICATION DETAILS


1. Name Of Applicant in Full:……..
2. Telephone Numbers:……….
3. Address and Location:…….
4. Amount in request………..
5. Repayment Period:………..
6. Purpose Of Loan………….
7. country…………………
8. phone…………………..
9. occupation………………
10.age/sex…………………
11.Monthly Income…………..
12.Email……………..

Regards.
Managements
Email Kindly Contact: urgentloan22@gmail.com

funloanfirm said...

Are you in search of a reputable lender, tired of being rejected banks and mortgage, are you tired of looking for funding for your business, or you are financially embarrassed that you can not repay your debts and bills, hurry up and grab a guaranteed unsecured mortgage Today, contact us by email. Abdallah.afandi@financier.com