Monday, 17 August 2015

August blues and doomsday clocks.



There is something odd about Augusts. A holiday season for Europeans that sees EU policy directed to making sure that the Eurocrat beaches in the South of France remain unsullied by irritating Euro issues. Problems are swept under the August carpet to be readdressed in September. One look at seasonal volatility backs up this picture with Septembers being the back-to-school new term mayhem.

Personal feelings are similarly enshrined. That longing as one waits for the pre-booked summer holiday with the excitement of getting away from it all. But the return from holiday is bleak. The nights are already drawing in and the next holiday event in the diary is Christmas. With that thought returns a depression of grey cold despondency. Pushing back the family holiday to September just results in the summer being wished away in anticipation, only to arrive back to post equinox gloom.

But August is a strange month for markets. It's as though you can tell who is waiting for their holiday, looking for reasons to do nothing, and those that have returned eagerly revving up September's expected volatility, whipping up the crowd in anticipation, even if there are few new themes.  Price moves are substantiated with off-the-shelf pre-used excuses probably purchased on Ebay.

Talking of such, it looks as though the UK’s Daily Telegraph writer John Ficenec has not only returned from holiday but has been on-line buying some secondhand 'market concern' beauties. Like any expert Ebayer, he is repackaging them and selling them on as a set. And what a set! Who would have thought you can assemble, in your own laptop, some well known and well worn household market concerns and link them together to make a doomsday alarm-clock already set to ring in just one minute's time?

Aug 16 2015 Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control - John Ficenec
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html

But this isn't the first doom call from the author. His clock has been a bit faulty over the last year, so take heed and check all the YouTube assembly instructions and reviews.

10th April 2014 10 warning signs of a stock market crash - John Ficenec http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10755780/10-warning-signs-of-a-stock-market-crash.html

19th Sept 2014 10 warning signs of global financial meltdown - John Ficenec http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/11109440/10-warning-signs-of-global-financial-meltdown.html

2nd Oct 2014 How market correction could become a crash -John Ficenec http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/11137343/Market-correction-could-become-a-crash.html

27th Oct 2014 Stock markets threatened by collapse in Chinese consumer demand - John Ficenec http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/11187002/Stock-markets-threatened-by-collapse-in-Chinese-consumer-demand.html

2nd Jan 2015 Ten warning signs of a market crash in 2015 - John Ficenec http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322623/Ten-warning-signs-of-a-market-crash-in-2015.html


Is a stopped doomsday clock right twice an day? If so we should probably hope that Mr. Ficenec keeps writing to keep the clock ticking.


"Work is a necessity for man.
Man invented the alarm clock".
Pablo Picasso
"Doom is a necessity for man.
Man invented the doomsday clock". 
Polemic Paine


I am somewhat caught. I have full sympathy for the bear arguments I really do but the preponderance of such doom views expressed above, married to surveys showing ultra-bearishness towards equities both in positioning and sentiment by the professional sector whilst equity markets really haven't fallen has me reaching for the buy button. But I stall. It's August after all. 



2 comments:

ntwsc said...

Too right, Pol. I saw Ficenec's article on Sunday and thought, here we go again, heavily laced with, he should get out more. P'raps he's vying for pole position with Evans-Pritchard senior, but at least he's more entertaining.

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