We should all change tack now. Opinions as to the outcome of the EU/Greek negotiations are pretty pointless as. let's be honest, none of us really know now do we? So on that front it may be best if a moratorium is drawn over the outcome guesswork and instead we just express the reasons we would like them to stay in the Euro and why we would like them to leave, as I am sure, like me you have reasons for both. So I'll kick off -
Why I do not want Greece to leave the Euro
- The pain and suffering that the populace will go through.
- The security consequences to the area and the secondary consequences to NATO - if they can behave like this to EU then why not do the same with NATO.
- The knock-on effects it will have, if successful, in driving left wing separatist agendas in Spain and other southern countries leading to factional fighting.
- A general rise in nationalism and divisions within European nations resulting in a destabilised Europe which can be leveraged by Russia and ISIS.
- The mobile phone charges on holiday in Greece would go up, that is if the mobile phone networks were able to afford to keep running.
- Every beach that isn’t covered in refugees would be covered in Russians.
- Zero hedge would never STFU.
- Travelex would take half my holiday money at the airport bureau de change.
- Turkey would get cocky.
- A Greek exit would be Breaking Bad. Not as a coincidentally analogous name, I mean the last episode in the TV series. We’ve spent years following its every plot twist and then it will all be over. The only upside would be waiting for the Spanish and Italian spin-offs and hoping that they live up to the original.
Why I would like Greece to leave the Euro
- It would get it over and done with.
- It would give the Greeks a chance to sort out their own mess.
- It would mean the Greeks would have to take responsibility for their own mess.
- It would allow a new floating currency to take the strain, as it always should have.
- It would be a dent in the arrogance of our illustrious EU leaders.
- It would show that the Euro is a bad idea without structural and fiscal reforms.
- My Greek holidays would hopefully be cheaper, if of course I would still be allowed to go there, or it was safe to do so.
- Coffees would no longer be 3 Euros each.
- We would be allowed to bring duty free back from Greek airports into the UK again
- The Germans would lose a lot of money.
- My short term shorts in FTSE would see a short term benefit.
- Once debt free they can borrow from the east and set up a new Singapore style tax haven, attract global HQ’s from around the world and stick two fingers up at the EU.
- It would be a small fillip for a couple of old 1990s FX traders who can come back to trade the FKD again (Formally Known as Drachma).
- All the greek millionaires responsible for having drained off the national wealth and now living in other EU countries will no longer have automatic residence rights and will have to go back and find their overseas wealth under the scrutiny of the Greek tax man (compare US IRS overseas powers).
- Even less chance of Turkey joining the EU.
I now have the World War 1 song going through my head "Oh we don't want to lose you (but we think you ought to go)'