Basically we never do until we are far enough above the base to recognise it as one, but the cynic in me is starting to see some signs that we are close to a pause if not a bounce -
ANZ sharply reduces its 2015 target for iron ore from $101/tonne to $78 after prices move down from $101 to $76 in the last 6 months.
Citi sharply reduce theirs further to $65 in a leap-frogging motion. On the comparison between the two banks I do wonder how much influence 'not wanting to upset your local client base' has on published price forecasts. And anyway, if their forecasting has such swing errors should we be bothering with them in the first place?
China is cited as bearish and not buying inventory (so when demand does kick in they will have no buffer and will have to buy fast).
BDIY ( Baltic Dry Shipping Index), the chart that only seems to be wheeled out in disasters, puts on a quiet 65% rally in the last three weeks without anyone mentioning it leaving it 100% up from July.
Folks sell the whole of their High Yield portfolios because of the impact the energy sector has had on them, without caring that they are throwing babies out with the bathwater.
UK newspapers speculate about sub £1/litre fuel.
'We Buy Gold' shops sell up (courtesy of @BasonAsset twitter)
Winter comes to Europe.
One last call before I go, and it's a bubble call related to corn. Not to corn itself but to a derivative - It is pretty clear that there is a bubble in popcorn making when there are more popcorn making startup companies run by ex-private schoolboys than farmers growing it and producing it in more flavours than there are zinging hipster tempting retro marketing slogans framed in pastel colours on the packaging. In the UK the market is estimated to be worth £55m a year so by my my rough calculations that's only enough to support 12 Tarquins and three red trousers.
When popcorn pops, don't say I didn't warn you. Where's the regulator?