Monday, 29 February 2016

Chart bottoms. Commodities to do the unthinkable?

It's leap year and we are enjoying our extra day of February, a miserable month as it is without having to extend it any further. February has been true to form in the financial markets too bringing us new concerns towards debt with obscure products such as the AT1 structures of banks and Deutsche Bank's storm in a coco cup. 

Yet despite all of that, many asset prices have returned to near start of month levels with some exceeding them For example if you were in the position of lending to Germany and paying them for the privilege of doing so at the beginning of month, as people are now willing to pay them even more for the privilege, your debt asset has gone up in value. Which is nuts. I hang by my basic rule of Negative Interest Rate Policy which is it isn't really of any use to me, or any other Joe Public, until we can personally borrow at negative rates. 

But the bounce in 'stuff'  has produced some interesting chart formations. The scales are not equal but the patterns are very similar. 

The SP500 looks double bottomish, 

S+P 500

Oil looks reverse head and shouldersish, though hasn't yet done the equivilent break that SPX has. Wasn't oil meant to be leading stocks rather than the other way around? 

Oil  (WTI)

Doctor copper is showing similar basing patterns but despite Thursday's attempted break has not yet confirmed it is ready to rip higher. Though I would be watching out for it to do so. 


Could we really see a turn higher in commodities? Sentiment has been so dire and tehe forward curve of sentiment is weighted by stories of limitless supply and no demand that it is easy to see the balance tipped and as we have seen throughout 2016, the sentiment, or at least the story,  seems to follow the price rather than the other way around. 

I am aware that month end produces whippy markets the way oil is grinding higher, despite USD strengtening against EUR and GBP,  has me thinking that commodities are about to explode higher. I know that doesn't fit with the the narrrative but so be it. 

Which leads us on to CB expectations. the flip flop of market sentiment in Fed rates continues to the point of tedium.  Expectations are so well swung towards ECB action that disappointment is to be expected anyway, but add in the Oil/Eur price upwswing and Draghi has another excuse to disappoint as he just loves mentioning oil and commodity prices when talking about ECB inflation expectations.  

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