Tuesday, 10 March 2015

QE QAR QRASH - Driving by committee

I am beginning to feel that the talk of QE did more good than its actual execution. This could fast turn into a QE QAR QRASH. EU QE is like driving an F1 car by committee and no one really knows the course.

QE buying running up the yield curve taking us further into the negative yield twilight zone is just compressing the inevitable spring of unwinds from this abhorrent state.

But in the meantime we have equities going down because of fear of US rate hike fears and bonds going up because of EU QE. It's nuts m'lord.

Still think both should go down ultimately as we have the next deleveraging saga. Only this time it won't be in personal debt but where that debt went - into state hands so soveriegn debt deleveraging. But of course the man in the middle is corporate debt who have been loading up thinking they are as bullet proof as sovereigns, mostly due to the investor market treating them as kings in the hope of currying some Maundy Yield Money.

If that debt is associated with its own currency then it will be FX dampened, but where its tied to a 3rd party currency (EU) all the pain will be in the debt and we will be back where we started in EU.

Be interesting to see who gets the blame. In 2008 it was the naughty lenders who took the social wrap. Next time around I predict it will be the naughty state borrowers who are blamed. Always blame the bigger entity it seems.

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