Wednesday, 16 July 2014
Beware the 16th of July.
It's that time of year again where my most mythological of turn dates appears. The 16th of July.
As I have written before under the TMM banner, Beware the Humphry Hawkish of July . But this 16th of July is even more special as a turn date for we can add some hockum pockum astrology to the equation.
For today is the biggest turn day of the year so far for the Bradley Siderograph and interestingly the next biggy is 20th Nov which rings a bell as another regular event turn week. Let's Thanks Giving for that.
Not much to go on, but combine that to a full moon and a positive response to the Humphrey 'Hawkish' testimony and we may be about to see a change of mood. Now the big question is a change in mood from what? The distribution of opinion is very much bi-modal rather than normally distributed at present, as indicated by the lack of response to questions on equity direction that yield 'hang around here for a while'.
This writer is too keenly aware that the last 2 months have seen a definite trend higher that these sort of change dates should normally reverse. But there is conflict as he is also still happily thinking that the next move is higher and would be delighted if todays 16th July is the start of a massive move in that direction. Especially as we have just had another failed test lower.
So still playing the 'onwards and upwards' into a rarified atmosphere of equity valuation nose bleed and bear bleed territory. All the better for an ultimate Baumgartning from. But not yet.
I get the feeling that being an equity bull carries the same social caché as saying you vote UKIP.