And so it is with English football - all but out but not even granted a clean death, instead being offered a 4% chance of surviving. I thought that sort of torture was banned in the Middle Ages. Don't we get a special conciliation penalty shoot out to go out on, just for tradition's sake? So far everything is running to schedule was we teeter at stage 11 of the 20 stages of a World Cup market. Oh well, not to worry, next up is Wimbledon where English players will be far more successful at getting the ball in the net.
I am always half hoping that football should one day receive the wrath and ire that has been reserved for the generic breed called bankers, though I am still unsure as to whom a 'banker' is as most of the folks I know in banks are far from being bankers (cockney rhyming slang excluded). I am sure that the world would have exploded in flash of moral rectitude if banking were regulated by the likes of FIFA and conversely would be delighted if footballer pay was under the same regulation re deferred and capped performance remuneration as bankers.
So on to markets - Also running much on schedule with the psychology of recent events having indeed taken the path of most pain with equities re-approaching recent highs which, judging by the squealing on most commentaries is not consensus. But here is another big spanner of unforeseen consequence of regulatory straight-jacketing - With those inside the industry allowed to comment less and less, if at all, about opinions the commentary world is becoming even more biased to those outside it where 'steady as she goes' does not constitute a headline, a tweet or FB rant. We are left with even more noise at the tails and less sensible fat middle on the normal curve.
For the sake of transparency and not being under the regulatory thumb any more perhaps I should throw in a two pennyworth that combines the boring and a tail.
So here's the view - Equities will keep grinding up boringly, but once past a tipping point, say 2150 on SPX, they will go spectacularly stratospheric in a hyperbolic spike as every Joe piles in on leverage (Zero Hedge rebrands as 'Infinite Hedge'). This happens just at the time that inflation starts to hit which also then careens higher leaving the Fed on the hop, who after trailing the curve for too long will hike dramatically stuffing global markets (includiing EM ) that by then will be fully geared for chasing micro-yield at the expense of risk. The resulting dump then triggers all the uber calamity theories with respect to the values of money, as the walls of state debt fail to withstand this final tsunami crashing into them. Meanwhile, the world will have been further weening itself off the Usd as the only currency in town and political global enforcement of US financial policy will have annoyed enough other countries to make them think twice before wanting to bail out the mothership again. throw in a few uprisings along the way and it's all change in the world.
Is that view enough to alienate me from everyone? The bears and the bulls?