tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post896351203099949490..comments2023-12-01T14:09:28.947+00:00Comments on Polemic's Pains: Greece's Political Bargaining Chips. Polemichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-88963960962287636592015-01-28T12:27:57.675+00:002015-01-28T12:27:57.675+00:00hi Hipper, lovely to see you here as well as at th...hi Hipper, lovely to see you here as well as at the other place. <br /><br />Fully agree with all of that. So it really argues against any wishy washy compromise that could be subject to ongoing argument. they have to nail this down now or else EU is going to be under continuous threat of blackmail along those lines. Rather than being half hearted EU may want to cut out the toxic infection and reestablish stronger borders one stage west. <br /><br />Anyway, it's all just posturing at this point but the first development yesterday that Greece was opposed to Russia sanctions and is complaining that they hadn't been consulted is an interesting glimmer as to the way this may be playing out. <br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-34134927533558881962015-01-28T12:20:29.121+00:002015-01-28T12:20:29.121+00:00Hi Polemic, these seem to indeed be considerations...Hi Polemic, these seem to indeed be considerations which are not very much discussed in the media. The main topic are only about economic implications.<br /><br />I don't know if it's politically correct to discuss this (but hey thankfully I'm not a politician), there are also the potential long term demographic implications. And with this I mean immigration. <br /><br />If Brussels wants to really enforce austerity, Mr. Tsipras could respond with a nod and say that Greece may no longer maintain it's border patrol unit, thus considerably leaving the outer border of the Schengen zone much more vulnerable (especially towards Turkey and the rest of Middle East). So essentially they could indirectly use the "flood of immigration" bargaining chip also.<br /><br />Like you pointed out there are really very many other potential chips ready to be laid out on the table. The future winner of this tug-of-war seems to be clear from this point of view, unless Eurocrats want to try winning the world stupidity contest and ultimately get their respectful, representative debt-ladden countries in even more doodoo.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-87287126385594513512015-01-27T15:45:28.039+00:002015-01-27T15:45:28.039+00:00Nice to have you back ntswc,
Anon - agree with e...Nice to have you back ntswc, <br /><br />Anon - agree with endgame probabilities but like low delta options, they make not come off but there mat be money to be made on the way as perceived probabilities change. I just don't see anyone mentioning Greece's bargaining chips with the EU other than debt and the economy. <br /><br />LB - thanks. Tbh my preferred route is a negotiated settlement but there will have to be teenage tantrum year old tantrum versus steady parents rule enforcing. Of course at some point the teenager sets off down the road threatening not to come back, but hey , that's just part of the game. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-72680190325854636632015-01-27T12:26:05.461+00:002015-01-27T12:26:05.461+00:00Ah yes, Peston, what a sad case. I suppose he coul...Ah yes, Peston, what a sad case. I suppose he couldn't find this Chapter in his Macro textbook from Oxford. Imagine a real Socialist government being elected and the world not ending....!!! The US media do the same thing, as soon as there is a crisis they ship some bird to Athens and then they are a bit miffed when it doesn't go crisis... er.<br /><br />If it gets cheap enough, China and Russia would buy the lot. That's one doomsday Greek scenario, and the other is the oligarchy returns to their favourite device and brings back the Colonels - government by army. <br /><br />This is why there is no way that the EU will let Greece go, Syriza or no. Renegotiation by maturity extension is my bet. Buy ETE and HTO and you'll be pleasantly surprised to find them still in existence next year and making dividend payments the year after. Sell hope, buy despair.<br /><br />Oh, btw, cue a raft of weak US macro data this month, probably starting with Q4 GDP later on in the week. 3...2...1.... Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-76320198411112615732015-01-27T09:43:17.580+00:002015-01-27T09:43:17.580+00:00Have to wonder where the Russians would get the fu...Have to wonder where the Russians would get the funds to invest in Greece in a meaningful way outside the energy and power transmission sectors? Their navy would have to see a huge hull building program to justify port expansion in Crimea and Piraeus. China a more likely investor but what would they buy ? Hellenic Aerospace ? There's ample scope for Beijing and Moscow and Tehran to create some geo-strategic mischief but probably not much more than that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-91824403384800784812015-01-27T01:44:57.885+00:002015-01-27T01:44:57.885+00:00And a jolly good thought it is too.
I don't ...And a jolly good thought it is too.<br /> <br />I don't know if it's still the case now, but I remember seeing statistical per capita comparisons a few years ago, when austerity measures were first being drawn up, of armed forces across the world - and Greece came out tops.ntwscnoreply@blogger.com