tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post4548419499945817945..comments2023-12-01T14:09:28.947+00:00Comments on Polemic's Pains: Japan. Well that's what happens when you pick the wrong benchmark.Polemichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-77759676384487906352014-11-19T17:06:15.902+00:002014-11-19T17:06:15.902+00:00thanks C
thanks C <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-77293041924248718472014-11-19T12:49:54.312+00:002014-11-19T12:49:54.312+00:00C Says,
Very good. Couple of things ;
1. Japanese ...C Says,<br />Very good. Couple of things ;<br />1. Japanese output gap ,labour slack?<br />2.Wages , FX multiplier on repatriated earnings means those blue chips have not had so much to distribute for many a year.<br />In other words creating some labour based inflation in Japan looks a lot more likely t me than any other developed economy that I can think of.<br />IMO, their big mistake was the VAT increase - came much too early indeed when I thought about it I couldn't actually see the why behind it at all. To me they were presuming to tax the gains from increases in real spending beoofre they actually had created any ! So Japanese !<br /><br />Frankly ,the Japanese have only one option although I don't know if they really understand it.<br />Debt to GDP over 200% plus. Population of 127 million but now falling in number. 23% are 65 +.<br />Compare to US debt/gdp 72% (ish) pop pf 300 million expanding at an healthy clip of 2 to 3% with only 12% over 65. Compare resources for energy and food production the staples of an economy.<br />Frankly, the great wonder of the 21st century is why is the JYen valued as it is? I suspect because for years far too many smart guys have been trying to screw the Jap bond market when in fact they should have been doing a Soros on the currency. Japan has got a UK sterling early 90's moment coming. They can zig and they can zag ,but it's coming anyway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com