tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post1966042673788521472..comments2023-12-01T14:09:28.947+00:00Comments on Polemic's Pains: Economist Cover Alert Polemichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-19420296836998023422014-10-26T16:13:15.067+00:002014-10-26T16:13:15.067+00:00i mentioned PMI vs IFO because the (flash) euro PM...i mentioned PMI vs IFO because the (flash) euro PMI came stronger due to the German PMI being stronger last week. France PMI was weaker than expected and prior. <br />-acAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-61983076304286221562014-10-25T13:12:25.088+01:002014-10-25T13:12:25.088+01:00I am always wary of playing Euro FX on a long term...I am always wary of playing Euro FX on a long term view on rate divergence especially when the swings around US rate expectations has been so wild over the past couple of months. Everything can change so fast. <br /><br />More to the point, the expectations are so far swung at the moment it makes the trade look very crowded. Part of that expectation is geared around the expectation of dramatic ECB policy even if it doesn't extend to full on QE. With that all priced in and there being little room for any further shock on the slowdown side, any sign of growth could do to Euro rates what happened to US rates a couple of weeks ago only in reverse. <br /><br />PMI vs IFO? I guess I'm looking at PMIs beyond just Germany where IFO just gives us Germany. Pick up in peripheral PMI's should also hit Bunds via the spread trades. In Germany we have had the PMIs last week with IFO next week so a partial lag but agree in general that IFO have an old statistical advantage. <br /><br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-62295090669879237512014-10-25T12:16:57.203+01:002014-10-25T12:16:57.203+01:00You made me wonder if my trade is consistent. I am...You made me wonder if my trade is consistent. I am short EUR vs a basket on long term policy divergence but also short bunds on the belief that there won't be sovereign QE. and, what do you trust more, IFO or PMI ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7585635149883470944.post-54258990743497537822014-10-24T11:46:09.133+01:002014-10-24T11:46:09.133+01:00Is it a Norwegian Blue?Is it a Norwegian Blue?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com